What ChatGPT Can and Can’t Do for Intelligence

In November 2022, ChatGPT emerged as a front-runner among artificial intelligence (AI) large language models (LLMs), capturing the attention of the CIA and other U.S. defense agencies. General artificial intelligence—AI with flexible reasoning like that of humans—is still beyond the technological horizon and might never happen. But most experts agree that LLMs are a major technological step forward. The ability of LLMs to produce useful results in some tasks, and entirely miss the mark on others, offers a glimpse into the capabilities and constraints of AI in the coming decade.

The…